Donald Trump and Project 2025 present the United States with the real possibility of going from a representative, democratic, republican form of government to an autocratic, fascistic form of government. For the record, let us first look at some historical Western European models of the passage from democracy to autocracy to see if there is a pattern that Trump threatens to reproduce.
Ancient Athens
In the Western world, the first democratic states arise in classical Greece, soon after the invention of coinage in nearby Lydia (Midas, Croesus and all that) – for more click HERE . Athens and other city states created societies built around the agora (the market-place), as opposed to kingdoms organized around the palace whose economies were based on in-kind tribute – taxes paid in sacks of grain, not coin.
BTW The existence of a tight link between market economies and democracy is a most interesting topic of discussion, one that has intrigued historians for some time now going back at least to Charles Beard’s An Economic Interpretation of the Constitution of the United States (1913).
But the move to representative government was not sudden; in Athens, for example, there were the reforms of Solon (594 BC) and the reforms of Cleisthenes (510 BC) which firmed up Athenian Democracy and led to the Golden Age of Athens. Democracy in Athens came to an abrupt end with the conquest by Philip of Macedon – father of Alexander the Great.
So here the model is conquest and absorption into an empire.
Ancient Rome
The Roman calendar measured years from the date of the mythical founding of the city, ab urbe condita or AUC – April 21 753 BC. According to legend, the city was ruled by a succession of seven kings until 509 BC when the Roman Republic (SPQR and all that) was established. The Republic continued on until 27 BC and the establishment of the Empire. The events and personages that led to the end of the Republic are the stuff of drama and legend (Pompey, Caesar, Cleopatra, Mark Anthony, Octavian – the future Augustus, …). The beginning of the end of the Republic started when Caesar illegally crossed the Rubicon River in North Central Italy in 49 BC with his army from Gaul, had himself named dictator (a title given to someone needed to rule in situation of crisis) and defeated rival Pompey in a civil war (49 BC – 45 BC). Then, shortly before his death, Caesar had himself named dictator perpetuo (dictator in perpetuity), effectively finishing off a military coup. His assassination came soon after at the hands of the conspirators in the Roman Senate. Then Mark Anthony and Octavian defeated the army of the conspirators Brutus and Cassius at the Battle of Philippi in 42 BC; they next divided the Empire between them with Anthony getting the wealthier Eastern half (Greece, Egypt, … ). That all ended with the Battle of Actium (31 BC) and Augustus’ victory; Augustus consolidated his power and declared himself Emperor in 27 BC with the entire Mediterranean world now under his authority.
So this is a military coup followed by a civil war, then another civil war and eventual takeover by a strongman.
BTW It is argued that the Roman Republican form of government was not streamlined enough to run an enterprise of the size of the Roman Empire. Ominous when you look at the size of the American imperium today – fleets in every corner of the world, etc. Worrisome!
Florence
The city-state of Florence had a democratic form of government for over three hundred years: from 1115 AD to 1434 AD, when power in the city was seized by Cosimo de Medici in an unusual kind of coup, the coup bancaire (sorry about that); seriously, the coup was engineered without bloodshed or political grandstanding – Cosimo the international banker had the money and with it the power to rule in the style of a tryant in Ancient Greece. The Medici family reigned until the death of Gian Gastone de Medici in 1737 when the region fell under Austrian influence.
This situation is indeed reminiscent of Ancient Athens where powerful leaders like Pericles could emerge and dominate the political life of the city-state for a long period of time. Also like Periclean Athens, the Medici period in Florence is a considered a glorious chapter in European cultural history.
BTW For Americans, it is to be noted that the early explorer of North America (1497), John Cabot, and the early explorer of South America (1501), Amerigo Vespucci, were both in the employ of the Medici banking empire. For more, click HERE .
The French Revolution
A dizzying story: in a short period of time, government went from an Absolute Monarchy to the Estates General (Etats Généraux) to the Assemblée Nationale to the First Republic; society whiplashed from the violent storming of the Bastille to the sublime creation of the metric system and the introduction of a new calendar to the Reign of Terror; politics went from interminable debates to regicides and political assassinations; matters military went from humiliating defeats to the creation of the citizens’ army, glorious victories and that most martial of anthems La Marseillaise; government then went from the Convention and its Committee for Public Safety to the Directoire to a stop gap government called Le Consulat – this last by means of a bloodless coup which, in the Revolutionary calendar, took place on the 18 Brumaire of the Year VIII (aka November 9, 1799); this coup put Napoléon in power with the title of Premier Consul, all of which led to the Empire a few years later in 1804.
For all its complexity, in the end, this counts as the classic military coup.
BTW Brumaire (“foggy month”) was the second month of autumn in the Revolutionary Calendar; the first was Vendémiaire (“harvest month”) and the third was Frimaire (“frosty month”).
Napoleon III and the Second Empire
In 1848 in Europe, there was a wave of anti-authoritarian movements (France, Germany, Italy, Austria-Hungary, Denmark, Poland, Ireland, …); in France, the reigning monarch Louis-Philippe (Le Roi Bourgeois) was forced to abdicate and the Second Republic was formed. Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte, the nephew of Napoléon, was elected president – a post with a term limit of 1. In 1851, when his term was up, Louis-Napoléon overthrew the government in a coup d’état; a year after, he simply proclaimed himself Emperor.
The Second Empire saw a modernization of industry, finance and commerce in France to the point that by 1870, the country had caught up to Great Britain (at least according to the French Wikipedia, click HERE .) Its downfall was brought about by the disastrous Franco-Prussian War (1870-71) which led to ceding Alsace-Lorraine to Prussia, to the Paris Commune and to the establishment of the Third Republic (which itself lasted until the Fall of France in WWII).
Drawing the analogy with the first Bonaparte’s coup d’état, Karl Marx published an analysis of class struggle in France and its relation to this coup entitled The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis-Napoléon – for more click HERE .
This pattern where a member of the government is the author of a coup has oft been followed; scholars deem Louis-Napoléon’s coup to be the forerunner of the fascist coups of the 20th Century.
Portugal
After a long history at the forefront of European Imperialism, at the start of the Twentieth Century, Portugal was a struggling European kingdom with but a few colonies left. Internal conditions continued to deteriorate and in 1908, the King and his heir-apparent were assassinated in Lisbon by republican revolutionaries. The King’s second son became King Manuel II – but his regime was overturned in 1910 and a republican government was installed. In 1911 a Constitution was approved and a parliamentary regime was put in place. Disastrous involvement in WWI, economic unrest, two failed military coups, …. – all finally led to a successful military coup in 1926. The resulting short-lived Second Republic gave way to the Estado Novo, a fascist regime under strongman Alberto Salazar. Salazar himself died in 1970 but the regime lasted until the Carnation Revolution of 1974 which established the current Third Republic.
So another example of a military coup d’état– although in this case it took three attempts.
Italy
Benito Mussolini founded the paramilitary group Fasci Italiani di Combattimento in 1919 which became the Partito Nazionale Fascista (National Fascist Party) in 1921. More than a political party, the Italian Fascists had a para-military wing known as the Blackshirts. These fought street battles with socialists and other groups in the early 1920’s while the government stood by doing nothing. Finally, the Fascists organized a March on Rome (Marcia su Roma, Oct 1922) to take over the country; the King pressured the Prime Minister into resigning and, presumably to avoid armed conflict, the latter simply turned the government over to Mussolini who moved quickly to turn Italy into a one-party fascist dictatorship.
All in all, a relatively bloodless coup in the style of Louis Napoléon.
BTW It was not the first such storming of Rome; Lucius Cornelius Sulla had his own March on Rome with his army in 82 BC where, providing a model for Julius Caesar to follow, he had himself declared dictator – a title that had lain unused since the Second Punic War (Hannibal etc.).
Weimar Germany
Like Mussolini, Hitler had his uniformed para-military thugs, the Brownshirts. Unlike Mussolini, his first attempt at a take-over (The Munich Beer Hall Putsch, 1923) failed which led to his imprisonment. Coddled by his jailers during the nine months he served of a five year sentence, Hitler put together his manifesto Mein Kampf (My Struggle) which increased his standing in the German speaking world. With the Brownshirts beating up socialists, communists and Jews, the Nazi party continued to make gains in the Reichstag (the German Parliament) and by November 1932, the Party held a plurality of seats – but was still short of a majority. When the other parties were not able to form a governing coalition, the German President Paul von Hindenburg (WWI hero of the Battle of Tannenberg and other successes on the Russian Front) appointed Hitler chancellor on Jan 30, 1933; soon the Weimar Republic had become Nazi Germany, a one-party totalitarian, fascist regime.
The Nazi party’s full name translates to National Socialist German Workers’ Party and they projected a populist appeal to working people. But to reach power they also catered to powerful industrial and financial interests with names like Krupps (arms) and Thyssen (steel); indeed, Hindenburg’s action was prompted by a petition, the Industrielleneingabe, signed by leading representatives of industry and finance.
This is similar to the Italian model in that the official in charge invited the fascists to take over legally. It is different in that Hitler had first tried a putsch that failed miserably – but, in the end, one with little negative consequence for him or the Nazi movement.
Spain
The (Second) Spanish Republic was established in 1931 with the deposition of King Alfonso XII. Government was complicated by the failure of any party to gain a majority in parliament. A military coup was already in the planning stages when a right-wing leader was assassinated in 1936 leading the military under Generalissimo Francisco Franco to begin their revolt in the colony Spanish Morocco. Rural areas tended to rally to the Franquist cause but the big cities (Madrid, Barcelona, …) stayed ferociously loyal to the government. The war was bloody and lasted three years; the Republicans received aid from the Soviet Union, the Fascists (aka Nationalists) from Italy and Germany; the European democracies (France, England, …) stood by and did nothing. The war lasted until 1939. Franco ruled until 1975.
Personal Note: This writer visited Spain in January 1957 – Madrid, Seville, Cordova, Malaga – with some college friends (one of whom, the future star talent agent Luis Sanjurjo, was thankfully from Puerto Rico!!). But the atmosphere was grim – men in uniform wearing 3-cornered hats were everywhere.
The war in Spain drew left-wing volunteers from the US and all over Europe, brave idealists who knew that this was just the beginning of the conflict between democracy and fascism. The war also gave rise to some significant international literature: Orwell (Homage to Catalonia), Hemingway (For Whom the Bell Tolls), Malraux (L’Espoir), … . Tragically, the great Spanish writer Frederico Garcia Lorca was murdered by Nationalists at the beginning of the war.
Upon Franco’s death in November 1975, a new king Juan Carlos I acceded to the throne in accordance with Franco’s plan; with the approval of the Constitution of 1978, parliamentary democracy was restored.
This story is most similar to that of Ancient Rome, what with a military coup and a civil war.
Analysis.
Of all these models for moving from democracy to autocracy, the one that the Trump phenomenon is closest to is the Nazi take-over in Germany. National Socialism was pegged to appeal to the German working class just as MAGA is a stunt to draw in the white working class by appealing to mythic periods of the past (white supremacy in one case, Aryan racial superiority in the other); both examples create and stoke racist animosity to stir up their base (in the case of Trump, he started with anti-Obama birtherism and now makes fun of Harris’ mixed-race background while the Nazis took their anti-Semitism to the murderous limits of the Holocaust); both use lies, lots of lies, to frame the debate; both use thug armies to beat up on their opponents (the Brownshirts in Hitler’s case, the Proud Boys and others in Trump’s case); both took power after an election without a majority of the popular vote; both Hitler and Trump buddied up with the right-wing ultra-rich (Hitler with Krupps, Thyssen, … and Trump with Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, …); Hitler had his Beer Hall Putsch, Trump his January 6th (both got away with it); Hitler was named chancellor after a democratic election in which the Nazi party did not get a majority and then became dictator; Trump, who will in all likelihood not get a majority of the popular vote, has said he will be a dictator on the day he takes office if elected in 2024!
The American electorate has to see where History could be taking us, rise to the occasion, overcome the advantage the Electoral College system gives to Trump and give Harris the significant majority she needs to win in November, 2024. Else, we will have failed to heed philosopher George Santayana’s warning “Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
